The US VRF system market size is expected to reach US$ 4.90 billion by 2031 from US$ 2.08 billion in 2023. The market is estimated to record a CAGR of 11.3% from 2023 to 2031. Pairing building automation and VRF systems is likely to be a key market trend.
US VRF System Market Analysis
VRF systems provide higher levels of energy efficiency. Unlike typical systems, which need turning on and off, a VRF system can run continuously at part-load, resulting in much improved overall operating efficiency. It can be equipped with heat recovery, which allows the utilization of heat recovered from one space to condition other places in the establishment requiring heat, and vice versa, subsequently enhancing total system efficiency. VRF systems are often smaller and lighter in weight than their counterparts, making them easier to install and move while maintaining valuable ceiling heights and flooring areas. The pressing need for energy efficiency and conservation, and diversifying applications across various industries are the main factors driving the US VRF system market growth. On the other hand, higher upfront costs limit the growth of the market. Further, the pipeline of high-end construction projects and government standards related to VRF systems create significant growth opportunities for the market. The integration of building automation and VRF systems is likely to emerge as a significant future trend in the US VRF system market
US VRF System Market Overview
VRF, i.e., variable refrigerant flow, systems use refrigerants for both heating and cooling. It is a large-scale, high-efficiency ductless HVAC system. Unlike split ACs, VRF systems can support many indoor units on a single system that can be tailored to the unique requirements of users. These systems are categorized as either heat recovery or heat pump systems. Heat recovery VRF systems can deliver heating and cooling at the same time. Further, VRF systems are outfitted with multiple air handlers that can be regulated separately; they can operate silently, even at full capacities. Thus, these systems are intended for both industrial and residential applications.
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US VRF System Market: Strategic Insights
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US VRF System Market Drivers and Opportunities
Diversifying Applications Across Various Industries Bolster Market
Operations of VRF systems involve the continuous functioning of compressors and directing refrigerant strategically in every zone as needed. A VRF system serves as an HVAC solution for a wide range of applications across various industries due to its small size, high energy efficiency, and exceptional zoning capabilities. These systems are installed in hotels, office buildings, apartment buildings, schools and universities, dormitories, data centers, hospitals, manufacturing plants, laboratory facilities, restaurants, large retail spaces, and anywhere that requires simultaneous heating and cooling over multiple zones. They create a comfortable environment for occupants with their quieter operations and personalized zoning, regardless of room occupancy. Centralized control systems aid in the adjustment of hotel room temperatures before guests' arrival or after checkout, resulting in significant cost savings. VRF systems with a single condenser unlock further energy savings. These devices are also available as water-source heat pumps, serving as an excellent solution for data rooms in office buildings equipped with cooling towers that supply water-cooled air handling systems. Water-source condensing units are incredibly compact and can be installed in a local equipment room with minimal floor space.
Educational facilities, ranging from large college campuses to smaller elementary schools, face particular challenges arising from a variety of rooms. Each room, from modest administrative offices to mid-sized classrooms to big gymnasiums, requires various HVAC equipment. All of these diverse needs can be fulfilled easily by using a VRF system with a single control panel. For example, James C. Kennedy Fitness Center at Emory Saint Joseph's Hospital had installed a Hitachi VRF system to benefit from its high energy efficiency. Air quality and temperature management specifications are critical in hospitals or clinical settings. The air can have an impact on patients' rehabilitation. A VRF system allows for keeping lobbies and common passages heated or at ambient temperatures while maintaining low temperatures inside recovery rooms. Thus, one can create zones without duct leaks, thereby filtering the air more effectively and minimizing cross-contamination. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), an average hospital utilizes 2.5 times more energy than other commercial buildings. The adoption of VRF systems in hospitals provides an energy-efficient way of maintaining safety and hygiene within their premises for the well-being of patients, staff, and visitors. Thus, diversifying applications across various industries drive the growth of the US VRF system market.
Explicit Regulatory Standards to Provide Growth Opportunities for Market Players
The US government has been incorporating various standards regarding VRF systems; these include eco-design regulation, system installation, and energy conservation standards. Since 2012, manufacturers of VRF heat pumps and air conditioners have been obliged to adhere to DOE energy conservation standards. In January 2023, the DOE proposed amendments to energy conservation standards for VRF multi-split air conditioners and VRF multi-split system heat pumps (collectively referred to as VRF multi-split systems) that rely on a new cooling efficiency metric. In July 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), under the AIM Act, proposed a rule allowing a one-year sell-through period for VRF systems that use HFCs with a global warming potential (GWP) of 700 or more. The Air Conditioning Contractors of America Association, Inc. (ACCA) is monitoring this proposed rule and its potential impact on contractors. In June 2024, the EPA proposed to amend the Technology Transitions regulations promulgated under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act. This action permits the installation of new heat pump VRF systems, and residential and light commercial AC systems with a capacity of at least 65,000 British thermal units per hour, using components that were made in the US or imported before January 1, 2026, for an extra year, until January 1, 2027. Such government standards and regulations on VRF systems are creating ample new business opportunities for VRF system market players.
US VRF System Market Report Segmentation Analysis
Key segments that contributed to the derivation of the US VRF System Market analysis are component, system type, and applications.
- Based on component, the market is segmented into indoor units, outdoor units, and control systems and accessories. The outdoor units segment dominated the market in 2023.
- In terms of system type, the market is categorized into heat pump, heat recovery, and cooling only. The heat pump segment dominated the market in 2023.
- Based on application, the market is segmented into commercial, industrial, and residential. The commercial segment dominated the market in 2023.
US VRF System Market Share Analysis, by Country
The US government provides incentives to encourage the use of renewable resources and promote practices contributing to energy efficiency. The government emphasizes on monitoring HVAC system performance at regular intervals in response to rising concerns about global warming. Standardizing production procedures of HVAC systems and their components, such as VRF systems, i.e., the supply side, has significantly mitigated environmental risks and reduced the burden posed by efficiency criteria on the demand side. According to the US Energy Information Administration's report, projected changes in cooling degree days in the US are expected to drive a 71% increase in household cooling demand by 2050. Commercial buildings are projected to see a 30% surge in cooling demand over the same period. In March 2023, the country finalized new energy efficiency standards for room air conditioners. These standards will go into effect in 2026 and are expected to result in reduced home electricity bills and carbon pollution. VRF systems are widely used in such cases. Thus, global warming and the resulting harsh climatic conditions, the continuously growing real estate sector, and the desire for energy-efficient equipment contribute notably to the increasing demand for VRF systems in the US, fueling the growth of the US VRF system market.
US VRF System Market Report Scope
US VRF System Market News and Recent Developments
The US VRF system market is evaluated by gathering qualitative and quantitative data post primary and secondary research, which includes important corporate publications, association data, and databases. A few of the developments in the US VRF system market are listed below:
- Fujitsu General America released Airstage VU-V systems that offer greater flexibility, efficiency, and capacity for commercial and light commercial applications. Airstage VU-V outdoor units can serve either as heat pumps or heat recovery systems with simple setting changes and the addition of refrigerant branch units (RBUs). The new VRF platform offers single modules with broader size ranges, from 6 to 16 tons and up to 36 tons per combined system. As many as 64 indoor units can be connected to a single system.
(Source: Fujitsu General, Press Release, February 2023)
- LG Electronics announced the launch of the new Multi V i VRF solution equipped with the company's highly evolved AI engine, in key global markets starting from Europe. Suitable for mid- to high-rise buildings, such as offices, schools, shopping malls, apartment buildings, and hotels, the energy-efficient Multi V I comes with a range of differentiated, smart features that help reduce energy consumption and deliver a more comfortable indoor environment as well as a quieter outdoor environment throughout a year.
(Source: LG Electronics, Press Release, February 2023)
US VRF System Market Report Coverage and Deliverables
The "US VRF System Market Size and Forecast (2021–2031)" provides a detailed analysis of the market covering the areas mentioned below:
- US VRF system market size and forecast for all the key market segments covered under the scope
- US VRF system market trends as well as market dynamics such as drivers, restraints, and key opportunities
- Detailed PEST and SWOT analysis
- US VRF system market analysis covering key market trends, national framework, major players, regulations, and recent market developments
- Industry landscape and competition analysis covering market concentration, heat map analysis, prominent players, and recent developments for the US VRF system market
- Detailed company profiles
Report Coverage
Revenue forecast, Company Analysis, Industry landscape, Growth factors, and Trends
Segment Covered
This text is related
to segments covered.
Regional Scope
North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, South & Central America
Country Scope
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to country scope.
Frequently Asked Questions
The incremental growth expected to be recorded for the US VRF system market during the forecast period is US$ 2.82 billion.
The US VRF system market is expected to reach US$ 4.90 billion by 2031.
The key players holding majority shares in the US VRF system market are FUJITSU GENERAL, Daikin Industries Ltd, Carrier Global Corp., LG Electronics Inc., Panasonic Holdings Corp., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd., Mitsubishi Electric Corp., Lennox International Inc., Trane Technologies Plc, and Robert Bosch GmbH.
Pairing building automation and VRF systems is anticipated to play a significant role in the US VRF system market in the coming years.
Pressing need for energy efficiency and conservation and diversifying applications across various industries are the major factors that propel the US VRF system market.
The US VRF system market was estimated to be US$ 2.08 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3 % during the forecast period 2023 - 2031.
1. Introduction
1.1 The Insight Partners Research Report Guidance
1.2 Market Segmentation
2. Executive Summary
2.1 Key Insights
3. Research Methodology
3.1 Secondary Research
3.2 Primary Research
3.2.1 Hypothesis formulation:
3.2.2 Macro-economic factor analysis:
3.2.3 Developing base number:
3.2.4 Data Triangulation:
3.2.5 Country level data:
4. US VRF System Market Landscape
4.1 Overview
4.2 PEST Analysis
4.2.1 4.3.1 List of Vendors in Value Chain
5. US VRF System Market – Key Market Dynamics
5.1 US VRF System Market – Key Market Dynamics
5.2 Market Drivers
5.2.1 Pressing Need for Energy Efficiency and Conservation
5.2.2 Diversifying Applications Across Various Industries
5.3 Market Restraints
5.3.1 Elevated Upfront Costs
5.4 Market Opportunities
5.4.1 Pipeline of High-End Construction Projects
5.4.2 Explicit Regulatory Standards
5.5 Market Trends
5.5.1 Pairing Building Automation and VRF Systems
5.6 Impact of Drivers and Restraints:
6. US VRF System Market Analysis
6.1 US VRF System Market Revenue (US$ Million), 2021–2031
6.2 US VRF System Market Forecast and Analysis
7. US VRF System Market Analysis – by Component
7.1 Indoor Units
7.1.1 Overview
7.1.2 Indoor Units: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
7.2 Outdoor Units
7.2.1 Overview
7.2.2 Outdoor Units: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
7.3 Control Systems and Accessories
7.3.1 Overview
7.3.2 Control Systems and Accessories: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
8. US VRF System Market Analysis – by System Type
8.1 Heat Pump
8.1.1 Overview
8.1.2 Heat Pump: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
8.2 Heat Recovery
8.2.1 Overview
8.2.2 Heat Recovery: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
8.3 Cooling Only
8.3.1 Overview
8.3.2 Cooling Only: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
9. US VRF System Market Analysis – by Applications
9.1 Commercial
9.1.1 Overview
9.1.2 Commercial: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
9.2 Industrial
9.2.1 Overview
9.2.2 Industrial: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
9.3 Residential
9.3.1 Overview
9.3.2 Residential: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
10. Competitive Landscape
10.1 Company Positioning & Concentration
10.2 Heat Map Analysis By Key Players
11. Industry Landscape
11.1 Overview
11.2 Market Initiative
11.3 Product Development
11.4 Mergers & Acquisitions
12. Company Profiles
12.1 FUJITSU GENERAL
12.1.1 Key Facts
12.1.2 Business Description
12.1.3 Products and Services
12.1.4 Financial Overview
12.1.5 SWOT Analysis
12.1.6 Key Developments
12.2 Daikin Industries Ltd
12.2.1 Key Facts
12.2.2 Business Description
12.2.3 Products and Services
12.2.4 Financial Overview
12.2.5 SWOT Analysis
12.2.6 Key Developments
12.3 Carrier Global Corp
12.3.1 Key Facts
12.3.2 Business Description
12.3.3 Products and Services
12.3.4 Financial Overview
12.3.5 SWOT Analysis
12.3.6 Key Developments
12.4 LG Electronics Inc
12.4.1 Key Facts
12.4.2 Business Description
12.4.3 Products and Services
12.4.4 Financial Overview
12.4.5 SWOT Analysis
12.4.6 Key Developments
12.5 Panasonic Holdings Corp
12.5.1 Key Facts
12.5.2 Business Description
12.5.3 Products and Services
12.5.4 Financial Overview
12.5.5 SWOT Analysis
12.5.6 Key Developments
12.6 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
12.6.1 Key Facts
12.6.2 Business Description
12.6.3 Products and Services
12.6.4 Financial Overview
12.6.5 SWOT Analysis
12.6.6 Key Developments
12.7 Mitsubishi Electric Corp
12.7.1 Key Facts
12.7.2 Business Description
12.7.3 Products and Services
12.7.4 Financial Overview
12.7.5 SWOT Analysis
12.7.6 Key Developments
12.8 Lennox International Inc
12.8.1 Key Facts
12.8.2 Business Description
12.8.3 Products and Services
12.8.4 Financial Overview
12.8.5 SWOT Analysis
12.8.6 Key Developments
12.9 Trane Technologies Plc
12.9.1 Key Facts
12.9.2 Business Description
12.9.3 Products and Services
12.9.4 Financial Overview
12.9.5 SWOT Analysis
12.9.6 Key Developments
12.10 Robert Bosch GmbH
12.10.1 Key Facts
12.10.2 Business Description
12.10.3 Products and Services
12.10.4 Financial Overview
12.10.5 SWOT Analysis
12.10.6 Key Developments
13. Appendix
13.1 About The Insight Partners
List of Tables
Table 1. US VRF System Market Segmentation
Table 2. Ecosystem: Authentication and Brand Protection Market
Table 3. List of Vendors in Value Chain
Table 4. US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Table 5. US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million) – by Component
Table 6. US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million) – by System Type
Table 7. US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million) – by Applications
Table 8. Company Positioning & Concentration
List of Figures
Figure 1. US VRF System Market Segmentation, by Country
Figure 2. PEST Analysis
Figure 3. Impact Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
Figure 4. US VRF System Market Revenue (US$ Million), 2021–2031
Figure 5. US VRF System Market Share (%) – by Component, 2023 and 2031
Figure 6. Indoor Units: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 7. Outdoor Units: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 8. Control Systems and Accessories: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 9. US VRF System Market Share (%) – by System Type, 2023 and 2031
Figure 10. Heat Pump: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 11. Heat Recovery: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 12. Cooling Only: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 13. US VRF System Market Share (%) – by Applications, 2023 and 2031
Figure 14. Commercial: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 15. Industrial: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 16. Residential: US VRF System Market – Revenue and Forecast to 2031 (US$ Million)
Figure 17. Heat Map Analysis By Key Players
The List of Players - US VRF System Market
- FUJITSU GENERAL
- Daikin Industries Ltd
- Carrier Global Corp.
- LG Electronics Inc
- Panasonic Holdings Corp.
- Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.
- Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
- Lennox International Inc.
- Trane Technologies Plc
- Robert Bosch GmbH
The Insight Partners performs research in 4 major stages: Data Collection & Secondary Research, Primary Research, Data Analysis and Data Triangulation & Final Review.
- Data Collection and Secondary Research:
As a market research and consulting firm operating from a decade, we have published many reports and advised several clients across the globe. First step for any study will start with an assessment of currently available data and insights from existing reports. Further, historical and current market information is collected from Investor Presentations, Annual Reports, SEC Filings, etc., and other information related to company’s performance and market positioning are gathered from Paid Databases (Factiva, Hoovers, and Reuters) and various other publications available in public domain.
Several associations trade associates, technical forums, institutes, societies and organizations are accessed to gain technical as well as market related insights through their publications such as research papers, blogs and press releases related to the studies are referred to get cues about the market. Further, white papers, journals, magazines, and other news articles published in the last 3 years are scrutinized and analyzed to understand the current market trends.
- Primary Research:
The primarily interview analysis comprise of data obtained from industry participants interview and answers to survey questions gathered by in-house primary team.
For primary research, interviews are conducted with industry experts/CEOs/Marketing Managers/Sales Managers/VPs/Subject Matter Experts from both demand and supply side to get a 360-degree view of the market. The primary team conducts several interviews based on the complexity of the markets to understand the various market trends and dynamics which makes research more credible and precise.
A typical research interview fulfils the following functions:
- Provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, and outlook
- Validates and strengthens in-house secondary research findings
- Develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding
Primary research involves email interactions and telephone interviews for each market, category, segment, and sub-segment across geographies. The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:
- Industry participants: VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers and national sales managers
- Outside experts: Valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion leaders specializing in the electronics and semiconductor industry.
Below is the breakup of our primary respondents by company, designation, and region:
Once we receive the confirmation from primary research sources or primary respondents, we finalize the base year market estimation and forecast the data as per the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors assessed during data collection.
- Data Analysis:
Once data is validated through both secondary as well as primary respondents, we finalize the market estimations by hypothesis formulation and factor analysis at regional and country level.
- 3.1 Macro-Economic Factor Analysis:
We analyse macroeconomic indicators such the gross domestic product (GDP), increase in the demand for goods and services across industries, technological advancement, regional economic growth, governmental policies, the influence of COVID-19, PEST analysis, and other aspects. This analysis aids in setting benchmarks for various nations/regions and approximating market splits. Additionally, the general trend of the aforementioned components aid in determining the market's development possibilities.
- 3.2 Country Level Data:
Various factors that are especially aligned to the country are taken into account to determine the market size for a certain area and country, including the presence of vendors, such as headquarters and offices, the country's GDP, demand patterns, and industry growth. To comprehend the market dynamics for the nation, a number of growth variables, inhibitors, application areas, and current market trends are researched. The aforementioned elements aid in determining the country's overall market's growth potential.
- 3.3 Company Profile:
The “Table of Contents” is formulated by listing and analyzing more than 25 - 30 companies operating in the market ecosystem across geographies. However, we profile only 10 companies as a standard practice in our syndicate reports. These 10 companies comprise leading, emerging, and regional players. Nonetheless, our analysis is not restricted to the 10 listed companies, we also analyze other companies present in the market to develop a holistic view and understand the prevailing trends. The “Company Profiles” section in the report covers key facts, business description, products & services, financial information, SWOT analysis, and key developments. The financial information presented is extracted from the annual reports and official documents of the publicly listed companies. Upon collecting the information for the sections of respective companies, we verify them via various primary sources and then compile the data in respective company profiles. The company level information helps us in deriving the base number as well as in forecasting the market size.
- 3.4 Developing Base Number:
Aggregation of sales statistics (2020-2022) and macro-economic factor, and other secondary and primary research insights are utilized to arrive at base number and related market shares for 2022. The data gaps are identified in this step and relevant market data is analyzed, collected from paid primary interviews or databases. On finalizing the base year market size, forecasts are developed on the basis of macro-economic, industry and market growth factors and company level analysis.
- Data Triangulation and Final Review:
The market findings and base year market size calculations are validated from supply as well as demand side. Demand side validations are based on macro-economic factor analysis and benchmarks for respective regions and countries. In case of supply side validations, revenues of major companies are estimated (in case not available) based on industry benchmark, approximate number of employees, product portfolio, and primary interviews revenues are gathered. Further revenue from target product/service segment is assessed to avoid overshooting of market statistics. In case of heavy deviations between supply and demand side values, all thes steps are repeated to achieve synchronization.
We follow an iterative model, wherein we share our research findings with Subject Matter Experts (SME’s) and Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) until consensus view of the market is not formulated – this model negates any drastic deviation in the opinions of experts. Only validated and universally acceptable research findings are quoted in our reports.
We have important check points that we use to validate our research findings – which we call – data triangulation, where we validate the information, we generate from secondary sources with primary interviews and then we re-validate with our internal data bases and Subject matter experts. This comprehensive model enables us to deliver high quality, reliable data in shortest possible time.
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