先进封装技术为半导体行业经济复苏做出重大贡献
代工厂、基板/PCB供应商、EMS/DM厂商等以不同的商业模式进入封装业务
2021 年先进封装市场价值约 300 亿美元;预计到 2031 年,该市场将以 8% 的复合年增长率增长,达到 550 亿美元。近年来,包装/组装业务发生了范式转变。尽管外包半导体组装和测试 (OSAT) 和集成器件制造商 (IDM) 长期以来一直是市场的主要贡献者,但具有不同业务模式的参与者,包括代工厂、基板/印刷电路板 (PCB) 供应商和电子制造服务(EMS) 公司正在进入组装/包装业务。
包装技术的创新,设备的小型化以及 MEMS 的日益普及预计将推动先进封装市场的增长
创新在封装技术方面,对异构集成和晶圆级封装的关注促使芯片行业开发出一套新的解决方案,统称为先进封装。硅尺寸从100毫米增加到300毫米是影响先进封装市场的一个重要趋势。转向更大直径的晶圆已将制造成本降低了 20-25%。设备的小型化和 MEMS 的日益普及正在提振对嵌入式芯片封装的需求。尽管该技术在市场上并不新鲜,但由于成本高、产量低,其采用仅限于利基应用;然而,它未来具有巨大的发展潜力。蓝牙和射频 (RF) 模块的进步以及 Wi-Fi 6 的兴起可能会进一步推动先进封装行业的发展。智能手机和平板电脑技术、无线通信等的不断发展,将对这个行业的进步产生积极的影响。
到2031年,先进封装技术将占据半导体封装市场60%以上的份额
2021 年,先进封装行业在半导体封装市场中占据约 40% 的份额,目前该市场由传统封装平台主导。然而,到 2031 年,先进封装技术预计将占据半导体封装市场 60% 以上的份额。
供应链的后端流程需要对专业设施进行大量投资。专门从事组装、封装和测试的公司通常将其年收入的 15% 投资于设施和设备。与前端制造工艺相比,后端工艺的资本密集程度相对较低,并且需要更多的劳动力;然而,先进封装的创新正在改变这些动态。总体而言,后端工艺活动约占行业总资本支出的 14%,并占 2021 年半导体封装行业总增加值的约 6.5%。该行业主要集中在台湾和中国大陆,以及一些新设施东南亚(马来西亚、越南和菲律宾)也正在建设中。
传统包装对比先进封装市场趋势
传统封装市场在 2021 年整体半导体封装市场中占据主导地位。就300mm等效晶圆而言,传统封装仍占据主导地位,约占72%的市场份额。然而,预计到2031年,先进封装在晶圆中的份额将增至60%以上。先进晶圆封装的价值几乎是传统封装的两倍,从而为半导体制造商带来高利润率。 2021 年,倒装芯片约占先进封装市场的 80%,到 2031 年,它将继续贡献重要的市场份额。
技术趋势:
- 异构集成是半导体创新的关键。 先进封装被认为可以提高半导体产品的价值,增加功能并保持/提高性能,同时降低成本。 各种多芯片封装方法 (SiP) 正在针对消费类、性能和专业应用的高端和低端应用开发.
供应链:
- 半导体制造供应链正在各个层面发生变化。 IC载板和PCB制造商——SEMCO、Unimicron、AT&S、Shinko等正在进入先进封装领域。 OSAT 正在扩展其测试专业知识,而传统的纯测试服务厂商正在投资组装/封装能力。 台积电、英特尔和三星已成为新型先进封装技术的主要创新者。
倒装芯片先进封装平台主导2021年先进封装市场
在所有先进封装平台中,2021 年至 2031 年,3D/2.5D 堆叠和扇出预计复合年增长率分别约为 22% 和 16%。此类封装平台的数量将继续在各种应用中激增。主要以手机领域为主导,扇入晶圆级封装 (FIWLP) 市场将在 2021 年至 2031 年期间以 5% 的复合年增长率增长。尽管规模较小(~美国2021 年将达到 5000 万美元),嵌入式芯片市场预计从 2021 年到 2031 年将以 20% 的复合年增长率增长,电信和基础设施、汽车和移动行业将成为这一先进封装平台的主要采用者。
扇出晶圆级封装预计将出现显着增长
扇出晶圆级封装 (FOWLP) 已成为一种有前景的技术,可以满足消费电子产品不断增长的需求。这种类型的封装具有以下特定功能: FOWLP 提供的增强性能归因于更短的互连和通过薄膜金属化直接 IC 连接,而不是标准的引线键合或倒装芯片凸块,并且更温和寄生效应。
投资展望:IDM 对先进封装技术进行重大投资,以促进其代工业务
台积电 2021 年先进封装收入约为 36 亿美元。该公司宣布 2021 年其先进封装业务的资本支出预计为 28 亿美元,明确面向 SoIC, SoW 和 InFO 变体以及 CoWoS 产品线。此外,英特尔对 Foveros、EMIB 和 Co-EMIB 等各种先进封装产品组合的投资是实施该公司新领导层公布的 IDM 2.0 战略的关键.该公司计划利用外部和内部制造资源,专注于设计胜利和增加市场份额,从而增强英特尔在客户端和数据中心领域的领导地位。
三星正在积极投资先进封装技术,以推动其代工业务,并成为台积电的可靠替代品。另一方面,各 OSAT 也在先进封装上大力投资技术以在利润丰厚的市场中竞争。无论 COVID-19 大流行的影响如何,他们的资本支出在 2021 年同比增长 27%,达到约 60 亿美元。
扩大我们的先进包装生产以推动市场
随着供应链担忧和贸易紧张局势的加剧,美国正在迈出第一步,将更大规模的 IC 封装生产能力带回国内。该国缺乏更大规模的 IC 封装生产能力。大规模封装生产能力、基板和晶圆凸块服务。Amkor、英特尔和其他美国公司正在努力解决这些问题。尽管美国在芯片设计领域处于领先地位,但新晶圆厂和产能却在下降。很大一部分晶圆厂产能集中在亚洲。尽管如此,英特尔、三星、台积电等公司仍在美国建设新工厂。因此,无论从供应链和经济角度,还是出于供应链安全原因,芯片制造对于保持技术领先地位至关重要。
美国先进封装行业的一些显着发展如下:
- < span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: verdana,geneva, sans-serif;">英特尔正在新墨西哥州开发先进的封装业务。
- SkyWater 正在佛罗里达州开发先进的包装能力。
- Amkor 正在考虑在美国建立第一家工厂,而其他 OSAT 正在扩张。
- 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司将在该国开设一条包装加工线。
- 美国政府提出了一项价值520亿美元的计划,以促进该国的半导体制造,其中也涉及先进封装。
竞争格局:前 10 名厂商占据 70% 以上市场份额
Intel 和 Samsung (IDM);TSMC(代工厂);ASE、SPIL、Amkor、PTI 和 JCET(全球前 5 名 OSAT);Nepes 和 Chipbond占全球先进封装行业约 75% 的 10 家企业。由于对最新技术和高速设备的需求不断增加,先进封装市场主要由最终用户收入推动。这些公司通过创新获得了可持续的竞争优势在这个市场中,由于各种应用对差异化产品的需求不断增长。
- 2021 年 2 月:Siemens Digital Industries Software 宣布与先进半导体工程公司 (ASE) 合作,评估数据中的多个复杂集成电路 (IC) 封装组件和互连- 在物理设计实现之前和期间提供强大的图形环境。
- 2021 年 8 月:三星电子宣布推出经过硅验证的 3D IC 封装技术——eXtending-Cube (X-Cube)——适用于最先进的工艺节点。 span>
- 2021 年 5 月:加拿大设备电子制造商和 EMS 提供商 Synapse Electronique 在其魁北克省沙维尼根工厂集成了两条 Universal Instruments Fuzion Platform 生产线。 ul>
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